Baldwin County home sales are not following the national script this fall. You have probably seen the headlines about sellers piling up and buyers sitting on their hands. Here is what actually happened in Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, and Foley, compared to the same stretch of the calendar in each of the last four years.
The sales numbers below come from closed sales in the Baldwin REALTORS® MLS, January 1 through October 28 of each year, so every year gets a fair, apples-to-apples comparison. The inventory numbers are a snapshot of homes for sale as of October 29.
The Short Version
- Sales held steady. 2,683 homes sold across the four towns so far this year, compared to 2,675 at this point in 2025.
- Prices nudged up. The median sale price is $365,604, up about 2% from $358,000 last year.
- Buyers have more room to negotiate. Only about 3 in 10 homes sold at or above their original asking price, down from more than half in 2022.
- Inventory is still tight. Each town has 3 to 4 months of homes for sale. About 6 months is considered balanced.
- Fall cooled off. September and October closings dropped about 14% from last fall as mortgage rates climbed back above 7%.
So, not a crash and not a frenzy. Baldwin County home sales look more like a market that has caught its breath.
How Baldwin County Home Sales Compare to Past Years
Think of 2022 as the year everybody was running for the last chair when the music stopped. Homes sold fast, often for full price or more, and 3,191 of them closed between New Year’s Day and late October.
Sales dipped in 2023 and 2024, then leveled out. The 2026 number (2,683) almost exactly matches 2025 (2,675), which means buyers are still showing up and closing.
Town by Town
Here is how each of the four towns stacked up, January 1 through October 28:
| Town | Homes Sold 2025 | Homes Sold 2026 | Median Price 2025 | Median Price 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairhope | 760 | 694 | $490,000 | $500,750 |
| Spanish Fort | 331 | 365 | $366,900 | $397,280 |
| Daphne | 696 | 683 | $359,000 | $368,908 |
| Foley | 888 | 941 | $323,308 | $324,000 |
A few things jump out:
- Fairhope crossed the half-million mark. The median sale price is now $500,750. Sales are down about 9% from last year, but price per square foot still rose, from about $215 to $223.
- Spanish Fort had the biggest price jump, up about 8%. It also sold more homes than last year. Roughly 4 in 10 sales there were new construction.
- Daphne was up about 3% on price with nearly the same number of sales.
- Foley sold the most homes of any town (941) with prices basically flat.
Who Has the Upper Hand Right Now?
This is the part the national headlines are really talking about, and where Baldwin County home sales have changed the most since 2022. One of the clearest ways to measure it is to compare what a home sold for against its original asking price (the first price on the sign).
- In 2022, 56% of homes sold at or above their first asking price.
- In 2026, that number is 31%.
- The middle ground grew. About 39% of homes this year sold for up to 5% under the first asking price. Another 30% sold for more than 5% under.
In plain English: the typical home this year sold for about 98% of its original price. On a $400,000 home, that is roughly an $8,000 haircut. Not painful, but buyers are clearly negotiating again.
Are There More Sellers Than Buyers Here?
Nationally, that is the big story. Locally, Baldwin County home sales data says no, at least not yet.
The best way to measure it is something called months of supply. It answers a simple question: if no new homes came on the market, how many months would it take to sell everything listed right now? About 6 months is usually considered balanced. Less than that leans toward sellers. More leans toward buyers.
Here is where each town stands for single-family homes as of October 29:
- Fairhope: 278 homes for sale, about 4.0 months of supply
- Spanish Fort: 125 homes, about 3.4 months
- Foley: 315 homes, about 3.3 months
- Daphne: 207 homes, about 3.1 months
All four towns are well under 6 months. On paper, it is still a seller’s market.
So Why Does It Feel Like a Buyer’s Market?
Because buyers have gotten picky, and they are not chasing homes that are priced too high. Two numbers tell the story:
- Price cuts are common. Between 32% and 47% of the homes for sale right now have already dropped their price. Daphne is the highest at 47%.
- Some listings never sell. Since May 1, about 327 listings across the four towns expired without selling. Over the same stretch, about 1,667 homes closed. That is roughly 1 expired listing for every 5 sales.
The short version: there are not too many homes for sale here. There are too many homes priced for 2022.
Mortgage Rates: The Wild Card This Fall
Rates are the biggest reason Baldwin County home sales feel different this fall. Five years ago, the average 30-year rate was 3.14%. It peaked at 7.79% in October 2023, then slowly drifted down to 5.98% by late February 2026.
Then it turned around. As of October 22, 2026, the national average sits at 7.32%, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey.
On a home at this year’s median price ($365,604) with 10% down:
- At last fall’s rate of 6.17%, principal and interest is about $2,009 a month
- At today’s 7.32%, it is about $2,260 a month
That is about $250 more every month for the same house.
Between September 1 and October 28, the four towns closed 435 homes, down from 506 during the same weeks last year. That is the lowest fall total of the last five years.
What Baldwin County Home Sales Mean for You
If you are thinking about selling: Prices are holding, and buyers are still buying. But the days of listing high and waiting for a bidding war are behind us. The homes that sell for full price are priced right, look sharp, and are ready on day one. Inventory is still tight, so a well-priced home has less competition than the headlines suggest. The AskJudd Seller’s Guide walks through how to get there.
If you are thinking about buying: You have more breathing room than you have had in years. More homes are selling below asking, and you have time to make decisions. Keep an eye on rates. If they drift back toward 6%, competition will pick up quickly, especially when spring brings the out-of-state buyers back.
If you are downsizing or retiring: The four-town median price has climbed from $340,000 in 2022 to $365,604 this year, so your equity is still there. Selling first and buying second may give you the strongest position in this market.
Judd’s Take
I’ve lived here more than 33 years, and I’ll be honest: the national news doesn’t always match what I see on the ground in Baldwin County. Our local market isn’t falling apart. It’s just back to normal, where buyers negotiate and sellers have to price smart. The rate jump this fall slowed things down, but people are still moving here for the bay, the schools, and a slower pace of life. If you’re wondering what your home would sell for in this market, I’d rather you hear it from me with real numbers than guess.
Got Questions? AskJudd. Wondering what your home is worth this fall? Request your free home valuation at AskJudd.com or call or text 251.895.3434.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why are homes for sale in Fairhope priced higher than what homes are selling for? A: As of October 29, the median asking price of single-family homes for sale in Fairhope was about $650,000, while the median sale price this year is $500,750. That gap simply means the homes for sale right now lean toward the higher end. Remember that asking price is where a seller starts, not always where they land. To judge value, look at recent sales of similar homes, not list prices.
Q: Are home prices dropping in Fairhope, AL? A: No. The median sale price in Fairhope is up this year. What has changed is how homes get there. About 38% of Fairhope homes sold so far in 2026 closed for more than 5% below their first asking price, compared to about 26% in 2022. Prices are holding, but overpriced listings are taking price cuts before they sell.
Q: Is fall or winter a good time to sell a house in Baldwin County? A: It can be. Closings in the four towns usually hit their low point in December or January, then build quickly. In 2026 they climbed from 204 in January to 302 by March. Listing in late winter puts your home in front of buyers before the spring rush and during snowbird season, when seasonal visitors are already here looking around.
Q: How much do mortgage rates change my monthly payment? A: More than most people expect. On a $329,000 loan (a $365,604 home with 10% down), principal and interest was about $1,969 a month at February’s 5.98% rate and about $2,260 at October’s 7.32%. That is nearly $300 a month for the same house. Remember to add property taxes, homeowners and windstorm insurance, and any HOA dues on top.
Q: How many Baldwin County home sales are new construction? A: A big share. In Spanish Fort, about 4 in 10 single-family homes sold this year were new construction. In Fairhope it was about 1 in 4, down from about 28% last year. If you are selling a resale home near new neighborhoods, builders are part of your competition, so pricing and presentation matter even more.
Related reading:
- The AskJudd Seller’s Guide: step by step to a smoother sale
- Find out what your Baldwin County home is worth
- Baldwin County Housing Market 2026: Is Now a Good Time to Buy on the Gulf Coast?
- Meet Judd Gillespie, your local Baldwin County REALTOR®
Data note: Baldwin County home sales figures are from closed residential sales in the Baldwin REALTORS® MLS, January 1 through October 28 of each year, for Fairhope (36532), Daphne, Spanish Fort (36527), and Foley. Inventory figures are single-family active and coming-soon listings as of October 29, 2026. Months of supply divides those listings by the average monthly sales over the last 12 months. Mortgage rates are the national weekly average from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Payment examples are principal and interest only and do not include taxes, insurance, or HOA dues.
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